The winter of the film and television industry has long been a common topic, and the industry has almost adapted to the new normal. However, the latest situation is that even ordinary audiences have felt the chill in the film and television circle this year. The summer season has not been able to wait for a real hit, and both TV series and movie markets are unprecedentedly "cold." On Weibo, Douban, and Xiaohongshu, discussions about the "winter" issue can be seen from time to time.

The public's perception is not groundless. The sudden decline in the number of TV series startups and distribution licenses also provides intuitive evidence from the data.

According to statistics, the number of long TV series that started in July was only 4. Excluding February 2020, when there was a zero start due to the outbreak of the epidemic, this July has become the month with the fewest new TV series starts since there has been a clear record. At the same time, the number of TV series (including online series) that obtained distribution licenses from January to June was only 117, which is also a new low in the past five years.

Under the cold wave, all kinds of rumors are emerging. It is rumored that this "winter" is different from the past, and the first to be affected are ancient costume dramas and fairy tales. Currently, these projects are all in a suspended phase. The start time has been delayed again and again, which has endangered the livelihood of many young actors and actresses.

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In the past, when we talked about the winter of the film and television industry, we talked the most about the downgrade of actor resources, the unemployment tide sweeping from mid-level artists to top stars, and the difficulty of TV series investment attraction, and the increasing number of advertising positions. So, what kind of "cold" is this round of "winter"? Is it really colder this year than last year?

The "winter" of platform strategy adjustment

"I don't feel that it's colder now than before." Producer Xiao A told Hard Candy Jun, facing the new wave of "winter theory" outside, he is a bit confused.

Because in his view, the current situation is no different from before, and there is no new round of "film and television winter." He believes that some projects are now suspended, possibly because the platform realizes that there are problems with "previous strategies," and it has to press the pause button and enter a period of adjustment to stop the horse at the edge of the cliff.

If the winter that people in the industry felt before was the "cost reduction" on the capital chain; then the winter that the audience feels now is the "indifference" attitude of the audience to the platform. The cold of the summer season has made the platform realize that it must adjust its content strategy and face the issue of "increasing efficiency."

Since last year, the basic audience of ancient costume dramas has shown a clear downward trend. Taking Yunhe Data as an example, ancient costume dramas used to have an average of more than 30 million effective playbacks per episode, but last year it dropped to a level of more than 20 million. For example, "Moon Song Line" and "Anle Biography," which are generally considered to be flops, are both more than 20 million, and the most flop "Seven Times Auspicious" also has more than 16 million.This year's ancient costume dramas simply cannot reach the level of "Seven Auspicious Times," such as the two "Xianjian" series "Qi Zhaochao" and "Xianjian Four," as well as "Fox Demon Little Red Mother: Yue Hong Chapter." Some have even fallen below the 10 million lower limit, for example, "Four Seas Re-illumination" starring Jing Tian and Zhang Linghe has less than 10 million average views per episode — this is not to say that Jing Tian cannot carry a series, as last year's "Brilliant Romance" with Feng Shaofeng had nearly 20 million + average views per episode. The popularity of this year's summer ancient costume dramas is even less than that of the Mango TV sweet drama "Private Romance."

Although there are still top-ranking ancient costume dramas like "With the Phoenix" and "Ink Rain Clouds," individual hits are not enough to cover up the overall decline of the ancient costume drama genre. The platform must face the fact that the audience has become tired of ancient costume dramas, and the genre has entered another low period.

Therefore, a reduction in quantity is inevitable. Just like the current film market's Hong Kong movies, after several blockbusters like "Golden Finger" and "Customs Frontline" have continuously flopped, Emperor Motion Pictures has temporarily slowed down the progress of projects such as "New Police Story 2" and "Infinite Mission."

With the reduction of ancient costume projects, there may be a corresponding increase in sweet pet and modern romance dramas. Producer Xiao A had a premonition two years ago: when the video platform's first round of cost-cutting strategy began, it massively cut sweet pet dramas, which led to a market saturation for sweet pet dramas this year. So Mango TV, which has been buying a large number of sweet dramas, has been able to suddenly take the lead with a small sweet drama at a certain period this year.

In addition to the ancient costume genre being affected, it is rumored that manga adaptation and martial arts projects will also be temporarily delayed. Among this year's manga adaptation projects, the movie "Beneath the Strange" flopped, and the series "Fox Demon Little Red Mother: Yue Hong Chapter" and "Blaze" also flopped. Even though last year's drama version of "Beneath the Strange" had a good reputation, it still only performed averagely in terms of data.

Suspense and crime genres, once involved in cases, face a long review period and it is difficult to quickly fill the market gap. Currently, all hopes are pinned on male-oriented dramas, and various platforms have a lot of male-oriented dramas in reserve.

However, producer Xiao A is not optimistic about male-oriented dramas saving the market. In his view, the real way to save the market is to break the "combination" within the industry and find real innovation possibilities.

The dilemma of conservatism and innovation

In the two years of vigorously implementing "cost reduction and efficiency increase," the drama market seems to be unaffected, although a large number of mid-tier dramas have been cut, and top-tier dramas are still being filmed continuously. But in terms of overall content production, there is a strong conservative tendency, with funds and resources circulating internally among "acquaintances."

Conservatism is most directly reflected in the "transfer love" casting model of idol dramas. In the past two years, the "transfer love" combination of Bai Lu, Wang Hedi, Yu Shuxin, and Zhang Linghe was impressive. This year, they all broke the cycle and formed new CPs, but it still feels like a circle. For example, Bai Lu was paired with Ao Ruipeng, who has two upcoming dramas, respectively paired with Liu Haocun and Li Landi; Liu Haocun and Li Landi have also been paired with Lin Yi; Lin Yi has been paired with Yu Shuxin, Zhou Ye, and Zhao Jinmai.Capital-driven and platform-bet 95s, 95-borns are forever in permutation and combination. And the so-called innovation is nothing more than introducing "old faces" 85s, 85-borns, and "former child stars" 00s, 00-borns to join the "love transfer" for a new round of permutation and combination.

In fact, there have been love transfers in dramas before, with the 85s generation mostly having acted with Hu Ge, Wallace Huo, William Chan, and others. However, in the era of low production of ancient idol dramas and frequent blockbusters, this issue was not easily highlighted. In recent years, the overall production of dramas has decreased, but the supply of ancient idol dramas has increased instead, making people feel tired and monotonous. Vlinkage data shows that 32 and 41 ancient idol dramas were broadcast in 2022 and 2023, respectively. This spring, some have already called 2024 the year of ancient idol dramas, with as many as 74 ancient idol dramas to be broadcast.

It's not just the actors in permutation and combination, but also the behind-the-scenes creators who form a closed "internal cycle" through their arrangements. For example, directors Guo Hu of "Zhou Sheng Ru Gu," Zhu Ruibin of "Sweet Sour Bitter," Yin Tao of "Under the Power," Zheng Weiwen of "The Untamed," as well as styling directors Huang Wei, Fang Sizhe, Zeng Minghui, etc., are all in various permutations and combinations in ancient idol dramas.

Audiences who follow ancient idol dramas are already very familiar with the whole set of promotional processes and routines. Before shooting, fans take turns praising the team and the costumes, giving people the impression of a well-produced, hit-marked production. Before broadcasting, the number of reservations breaks a million. After the broadcast, the data looks ominous, and they start to blame the scriptwriter, makeup, platform, and other reasons.

A true ancient idol drama viewer has to go through the experience of "the boy who cried wolf" many times a year. However, without fresh water and catfish in the internal cycle circle, how can we expect them to innovate?

It can only rely on self-awareness. In a bad environment, it is understandable that investors believe in creators who have had successful works in the past. But once the circle is closed, it is difficult to make progress and innovate. No matter what these creators make of their works, it will not affect their subsequent resources. They are a group of people who can make a stable profit without much effort. For them, the biggest change before and after the winter of the film and television industry is that the number of earnings is not as large as before, but as long as they are willing to lower the price, the quantity is still considerable.

Film directors may be the only hope for innovation in the current drama market. In addition to Wong Kar-wai's "Blossoms," this year Rao Xiaozhi and Cao Baoping both have dramas as executive producers, Cao Baoping's "Border Water Past" is fermenting in reputation, Zhang Yimou's "Snow Labyrinth," and Chen Sicheng's "Spherical Lightning" are all ready to be broadcast.

Where have the drama audiences gone?

There is no denying that there are problems with the content of the drama and the model of the drama circle itself. However, it was still unexpected that the summer drama this year would be so coldly received.

The most vocal argument is nothing more than that mini-programs, micro-short dramas, and short videos have taken away the audience's time and changed the audience's drama-watching habits. The audience has no patience to watch relatively slow-paced long dramas. The success of "Ink Clouds Between" is generally attributed to the fast-paced "short drama" model of long dramas.The impact of short videos is certainly present, but short dramas may not necessarily have a lasting influence. As we enter 2024, the short drama market has also begun to decline. Articles exposing the illusion of overnight wealth through short dramas are increasing, with many short drama companies beginning to voice concerns about "not making money," "not as profitable as last year," and "a loss of 2 million in half a year."

The most lucrative market in the short drama model, the paid streaming market, is also significantly shrinking. At the beginning of this year, the micro-short drama research platform DataEye released the "2024 Micro-Short Drama Buying and Streaming Data Report," which predicted that the scale of paid streaming for micro-short dramas would reach approximately 42 billion. Now, half a year has passed, and DataEye's "2024 Mid-Year Micro-Short Drama Streaming White Paper" shows that the streaming scale for the first half of 2024 is about 11.6 billion, with a full-year estimate of 25-30 billion, a total reduction of over 10 billion.

I have also researched the audience for long dramas around me. Many people have indicated that they did indeed fall into the trap of short dramas last year, but after watching too many, they found them bland. Many still maintain the habit of watching long dramas, but they no longer focus on the new dramas promoted by video platforms.

Data from Yunhe shows that this year, many older dramas have performed well, with "The Story of Minglan," "The Legend of Zhen Huan," and "Joy of Life" even surpassing the data of many new dramas.

Data from various sources indicates that the mainstream age of users for TV series and movies is increasing. However, this also proves that old viewers with a habit of watching series and movies will continue to do so. They have not given up on long dramas; they are just becoming more demanding in terms of content. For these old drama audiences, new dramas are nothing more than a replication of old formulas with a new cast, and even the best replications find it hard to captivate the audience. Coupled with the fact that the actors do not have the same appeal as the previous generation, why not watch old dramas instead?

In addition, the chill in the film and television industry this year is also related to insufficient marketing. This year, the overall data for short videos of TV series and movies has declined. The "king of dramas" "Joy of Life 2" only has 29 billion topic views on Douyin, far less than "The Whirlwind," and also not comparable to "Longing," "Long Moon Burning Bright." The currently airing hot drama "Lone Boat" has not even reached 1 billion topic views on Douyin. Some industry insiders say that the strategy of short video platforms has changed this year, with traffic no longer favoring the film and television industry, but mainly leaning towards the sports industry.

Innovation cannot just be superficial, such as superimposing a few popular online literary trends from a few years ago on classic ancient romance routines. It is time for a fundamental change in content. The audience has not given up on long dramas, and long dramas should not give up on themselves.